The Senate is in session, and the House is beginning a weeklong recess. President Donald Trump is attending the G7 summit in Alberta, Canada.
It’s a short week for the Senate given the Juneteenth holiday. Senators will break for the long weekend on Wednesday afternoon.
Senators will get a security briefing from the sergeant-at-arms and U.S. Capitol Police on Tuesday morning at the request of Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
This is in response to the horrific assassination of former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark Hortman, on Saturday. Minnesota state Sen. John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette Hoffman, were also shot by the alleged gunman, who surrendered Sunday night following a massive police manhunt.
House Republicans held a call on Saturday – scooped here – during which members said they needed security for their homes and fretted about their whereabouts being a matter of public record.
On reconciliation. In a matter of hours, Senate Finance Committee Republicans will release long-awaited legislative text for its portion of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
Senate Republicans will gather for a conference meeting in the Capitol after the 5:30 p.m. fly-in vote. Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) will give a presentation on the panel’s text.
The Finance Committee has jurisdiction over the thorniest policy debates consuming Republicans in the Senate, House and White House. It’s also the final Senate panel to release legislative text, which has to happen in order for the “Byrd Bath” to begin.
This will be a long week for the committees going through the “Byrd Bath.” The panels must clear each provision with the Senate parliamentarian under the Byrd Rule, which controls the reconciliation process. Finance isn’t likely to start the formal Byrd review until later this week, at the earliest.
But a lot more needs to happen before the GOP reconciliation bill is ready for the Senate floor. Several provisions are expected to have placeholders while negotiations continue. In other words, it’s not just SALT that will be unfinished when the bill is released. So the whip job can’t start quite yet.
And even if it can pass the Senate, House passage would be far from certain. Trump will need to play a huge role here if he wants to avoid a ping-pong situation between the two chambers, which would only cause further delays.
Speaking of changes… We’re watching closely for what Finance does on the most controversial policies.
1) The deduction cap for state and local taxes could derail the entire reconciliation effort. Republican senators want to dramatically lower the $40,000 cap for people making up to $500,000 included in the House-passed bill. The House’s SALT caucus, however, has enough leverage to impose its will on reconciliation by voting against it. The question is whether these vulnerable House Republicans will use it. They swear they will.
2) Senate Republicans are planning to revise the House GOP rollback of some clean energy tax credits. Finance Republicans are considering making some phase-outs gentler and others more aggressive based on energy type.
Republican moderates in both chambers feel strongly about a slower energy credit wind-down. The House Freedom Caucus is adamant about big cuts quickly. We’ll see if Finance can walk that tightrope.
3) Finance is also responsible for overseeing Medicaid cuts in the bill. Several moderates have been wary of Medicaid cuts, especially the House bill’s crackdown on provider taxes. It’s a politically toxic issue for GOP centrists. But once again, conservatives are adamant about deep cuts.
We’re also watching how the spending balance shakes out in Finance’s bill. House fiscal conservatives are intent on tying the amount spent on tax cuts to achieving spending cuts.
Israel latest. The war between Israel and Iran enters its fourth day as missiles and airstrikes continue across the two countries. Israeli forces said they struck the Quds Force command center in Tehran. Iranian missiles struck Tel Aviv and Haifa, killing at least eight people and drawing Israeli threats of retribution.
There’s no sign of any imminent diplomatic end to the conflict, which began with a stunning Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear facilities and military leaders. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Reuters reported Sunday that Trump “vetoed an Israeli plan in recent days to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,” citing unnamed U.S. officials. Other news organizations also reported on the Ali Khamenei assassination plan and Trump’s opposition to the move.
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) is unveiling a war powers resolution that will force the Senate to vote on whether the U.S. should be engaging in hostilities with Iran. The resolution wouldn’t prevent the president from defending U.S. citizens and assets in the region. Kaine said he’s concerned the “escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran could quickly pull the United States into another endless conflict.”
Separately, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is in the region this week for a multi-country CODEL sponsored by the Atlantic Council. The trip includes Reps. Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.), Zach Nunn (R-Iowa), Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.). It’s unclear whether the group can actually make it to Israel later in the week as scheduled, given the security situation.
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