How next week’s spending review could impact your finances

As the government’s spending review looms large on the economic horizon next week, speculation about what is set to change is ramping up.

Experts from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) have already said “unavoidable” tough choices are inevitable on 11 June, but it remains to be seen how those might affect the man on the street.

The IFS’s evaluation, released at the weekend, showed the level of spending on health would dictate whether cuts were made to “unprotected” areas — those outside the NHS, defence and schools.

The conversation this week has heavily centred on an incoming increase in defence spending, with prime minister Keir Starmer outlining plans to invest in 12 new military submarines.

While many uttered a sigh of relief at the announcement the government would look to revisit its winter fuel allowance decision, general anxiety is setting in about the possible impact of more tax rises, as the government works out what else can be cut or tweaked to fund its plans.

Read more: What is the Pension Investment Review?

Heavily debated taxes, such as rules around gifting and inheritance tax, could be in the crosshairs. The option of freezing income tax thresholds is also a possible change.

“Even though the path looks precarious, the chancellor [Rachel Reeves] remains committed to maintaining stability and prudence with borrowing to avoid a bond market strop out,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“So, given big cuts […] would be politically difficult, it is not surprising given the choices in the spending review that speculation is mounting about potential tax rises in the autumn.”

Rules around workplace pensions and the future of salary sacrifice to save on taxes could be on the block.

“This would cut the tax-efficiency of these schemes, which runs the risk of persuading employers to make their pension offering less generous,” said Helen Morrissey, Yahoo Finance UK columnist and head of retirement analysis, Hargreaves Lansdown.

Read more: Bank of England governor expects interest rates and pay to decrease this year

“There has also been discussion about the reinstatement of a pension lifetime allowance, which risks undermining people’s confidence and encourage them to pause contributions.”

As well as the threat of thorny pension tax changes, there are questions around further alterations to dividend tax.

“Investors have already seen horrible cuts in the dividend allowance and higher rates introduced, so it would be adding insult to injury,” said Sarah Coles, Yahoo Finance UK columnist and head of personal finance, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Given how attractive the UK market is for investors seeking dividends, it would be counter-intuitive to make dividend investing less rewarding given that the government is keen to encourage investment in the UK.”

Despite the seemingly difficult choices Rachel Reeves faces, there could be one potential saving grace in moving the goalposts, added Streeter.

“There is a chance that Reeves might tweak her fiscal reporting rules, as suggested by the International Monetary Fund,” she said.

“This has the potential to give the chancellor a bit more wiggle room as the government might not be forced to make such frequent spending changes in reaction to changes to the economic outlook, which as we know is currently in a state of flux due to the unpredictability of US trade policy.”

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