Estimating yield potential and yield gaps is crucial for global food security. However, many studies rely on statistical methods that lack theoretical and empirical justification for their use. We show that well-validated crop models, combined with local weather and soil data, provide a more accurate assessment of production potential.
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References
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van Ittersum, M. K. et al. Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance—a review. Field Crops Res. 143, 4–17 (2013). A review article that presents the yield potential and gaps concept and methods.
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Mueller, N. D. et al. Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management. Nature 490, 254–257 (2012). This paper reports yield gaps using distribution of best farmers’ yield per global climate bin.
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Gerber, J. S. et al. Global spatially explicit yield gap time trends reveal regions at risk of future crop yield stagnation. Nat. Food 5, 125–135 (2024). This paper reports yield gap trends using quantile regressions at global levels.
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This is a summary of: Couëdel, A. et al. Statistical approaches are inadequate for accurate estimation of yield potential and gaps at regional level. Nat. Food https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01157-4 (2025).
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Published statistical methods fail to accurately estimate crop production potential.
Nat Food (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01166-3
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Published: 18 April 2025
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01166-3
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