00:00 Speaker A
Stocks close higher with the Dow rising nearly 600 points. Investors hoping President Trump will dial back the next tariff wave and here with the Trading Day takeaways is Yahoo Finance’s very own Josh Shafer. Josh.
00:12 Josh Shafer
Yeah, Josh. So, that was certainly takeaway one, right? So, we had news over the weekend, reported by both Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, that perhaps the tariffs that we’ve been talking about might not be as widespread from the Trump administration. Then, of course, we flip over to the market action this afternoon. President Trump himself, speaking in the White House today, and he said that there might not the tariffs might not essentially be as wide as people thought. Maybe not everyone is getting the full brunt of these tariffs. The market opened higher on the reports. Trump spoke about here. Still had stocks higher off of that. So, I think what we’re learning here is the clear bias that we’ve been talking about over the past month really, which is the market is not necessarily rooting for these tariffs. The market is rooting to hear that the tariffs will not be as widespread as feared. So, you get that news today. You get a stock rally. And overall, it seems like maybe still a little bit of a wait and see. Remember, we’ve been talking about April 2nd as that deadline. That’s still looming next week. So, we have right now what the administration is saying, what’s being reported on, but no real concrete signed signed actions to sort of run off.
01:56 Speaker A
And investors, they look at a day like today, Josh, they just wonder, okay, so how move like that, how sustainable is that?
02:10 Josh Shafer
Yeah, I mean, I think a lot of strategists right now are saying, you know, let’s wait and see, right? So, you take a look at something like Ark. This is Kathy Wood’s Fund, of course. You look over the last we’ll go month here if I can month. Yes. It was one of the most hit sides of the market, right? And so, you see a big pop today, not really surprising. I think you even go on a stock-by-stock basis here, Josh. You look at a stock like, let’s point out Tesla, right? All right, so Tesla has gotten absolutely crushed over the last two months. Stock rises 12% today. The question is, what are we going to hear that actually gets the stock back up to levels where it was trading? And I don’t think that’s just going to be tariff news either. These companies are going to have to come out with earnings in the next couple weeks. I think it’s a little bit still wait and see until you hear from some of these larger companies and hear exactly how tariffs might impact them, and just the overall environment, as we’ve sort of been in this shifting narrative. I think we want to learn a little bit more over the next month with earnings.
03:41 Speaker A
All right, Shafer, bullet point number two.
03:45 Josh Shafer
Bullet point number two. So, this was our chart of the week on the website recently, Josh. I want to talk a little bit more about it. So, we’re looking at here is the S&P 500 for the year, right? That’s, of course, your white line here. Hasn’t been that great for stocks. But then you take a look at the forecast. What stands out to the forecast? So, we talk a lot about those S&P 500 targets. Your highest one here is 7100. Your lowest one is 5500. And then you’ve got all these ones in the middle. Interesting to think to get to the high end of this crash, you would have to rally over or, I guess, before today, about 25%. A lot of the other ones I circled in the middle here about 10%. And then even 5500 isn’t that low from where we are now. So, just what stands out to me right now in the forecasting space is you could really make a good argument for essentially any of these targets, which has not been the case over the last couple years, right? We’ve been talking about strategists chasing the market higher, chasing the market higher. Well, this year, there’s sort of a case for stocks increase a little bit, stocks increase a lot, or even a 5500. That’s Steve Bannister. He’s talking about stagflation, higher inflation, slower growth. That’s a narrative we’ve been talking about. That is a realistic option at this point. Excuse me, as well.
05:39 Speaker A
So, those are those are the targets. Let’s talk about profit expectations. What are those doing?
05:47 Josh Shafer
Yeah, so, as we know, the market, obviously, has been moving lower recently. And I thought this chart from Morgan Stanley’s interesting. So, we’re looking at here is mag 7 earnings revisions breath. So, sort of where the mag 7 earnings expectations have been. Remember, mag 7 led us lower over the last month from a stock perspective. So, too, did earnings. But what Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson is pointing out here is this little line over the past couple weeks. Earnings have started to rebound, and visions have started to rebound for the mag 7. If that continues to happen, then maybe going back to a screen we just talked about with all those mag 7 names being sold off, maybe see a little bit more of a rally. So, it’ll be interesting to see again over the next several weeks, not what the companies say about the first quarter, but what they say about the rest of 2025, how much your company’s going to cut guidance for the rest of the year is sort of the looming question heading into the first quarter.
07:01 Speaker A
Tariffs are important. We should be talking about that. So, earnings. Yes. Thank you, Joshua. Appreciate it.
07:12 Josh Shafer
Yes. Yes.
发表回复