With Trump Tariffs, Expect Food Inflation For These Fruits, Vegetables

As you try to digest the 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada that President Trump announced today, as you listen tonight to his first State of the Union Address of his second term, consider this:

• 99% of the tomatoes the United States imported in 2024 came from Mexico (86%) and Canada (13%) in 2024.
• 99% of the imported lettuce came from Mexico (588%) and Canada (11%) in 2024.

• 88% of imported carrots came from Mexico (49%) and Canada (39%) in 2024.
• 70% of imported avocados came from Mexico in 2014.
• 67% of imported strawberries, blueberries, raspberries and blackberries come from Mexico (63%) and Canada (4%).
• 60.7% of all imported onions and garlic came from Mexico (52%) and Canada (8.7%) in 2024.
• 57.8% of all imported green beans and peas come from Mexico (56%) and Canada (1.8%).

I chose to focus on fruit and vegetable imports because inflation, and specifically the cost of food, is widely believed to have been a factor in the 2024 presidential race between President Trump and then-Vice President Kamala Harris. It’s what shoppers see every time they grab a plastic grocery basket or pull a cart from the corral of carts.

These tariffs will also affect exports and imports at a number of border crossings, particularly in Pharr, Texas and Laredo, but including Nogales in Arizona and the border south of San Diego in California.

Previously, I wrote a column about how far-reaching the impact of tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada, the United States’ top two trade partners, from the standpoint of U.S. exports to those countries. What would be the impact if broad retaliatory tariffs went into place?

But instead of focusing on the most valuable exports – which would have clearly shown the impact tariffs will have on the automotive industry – I looked at all the individual categories to see how deep they would reach into U.S. export trade, how many different types of businesses would be affected across the United States. What I discovered was the Mexico or Canada ranked first for 72% of the export categories.

Prior to that, I wrote a column about how much more dangerous a trade war with Mexico and Canada would be compared to the existing one with China, precisely because of our export strength with those our USMCA partners. While U.S. exports to China have grown rapidly in the last decade, the percentage of exports to total trade still lags behind the U.S. average with the world while Mexico and Canada are at or above the average.

In response to Trump’s 25% tariffs that went into effect today against the nation’s two largest trade partners, Canada has announced it will impose tariffs on the United States in retaliation. Mexico has indicated it will decide by this weekend.

Also, Trump:

• Has imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, key to the automotive and other industries,
• Has announced that cargo ships representing Chinese companies or manufactured there would have to pay to enter U.S. seaports,
• Is studying “reciprocal” tariffs against the rest of the world’s countries that in the White House’s estimation, do not trade fairly with the United States,
• Is considering tariffs on passenger vehicles globally.

Many are estimating the impact the Mexico and Canada tariffs will have. Certainly, the stock market is showing displeasure. What’s really harmful, in my estimation, is the uncertainty of it all and the diminution of trust our strongest allies will have in the United States for years to come.