00:00 Speaker A
At the end of the day, I think this is a good time to take some profits. I mean, we have digested so much really since April 2nd, um from, you know, data to tariffs, you know, ultimately a strong earnings season, everything that you, you know, just been going through. But um, the market is starting to lose some steam. It’s kind of been this melt up over the last several weeks. Uh we’ve seen breadth within the market really start to narrow quite a bit, as you’re just discussing with the magnificent 7. Uh, really the AI trade has been, you know, keeping this uh, you know, rally going. And I wouldn’t be surprised as we kind of turn the page into the second half of this year, uh investors kind of take a step back and, and, you know, again, take some of those profits and and look to um, ultimately the, you know, potentially diversify a little bit with fixed income, especially where, you know, rates are at currently.
01:26 Speaker B
Hey, Q2 earnings season, those on deck, Tim, do you think that could, could that prove to actually be another positive catalyst for the market?
01:44 Speaker A
It could be. I mean, earnings revisions were, were, you know, uh revised down quite a bit. Um we’ve started to see that, you know, moving the other direction more recently, but um, there’s still so many cross currents that, you know, may ultimately be impacting some of these companies that removed guidance. I think about 20% of the S&P 500 uh removed guidance for the year. So uh, the bar might be a little lower than uh ultimately, you know, needs to be and and perhaps we, you know, jump over it. Um, as Julie mentioned, you know, it’s going to be the uh lowest from a growth rate standpoint in quite some time, but um, still positive momentum. I think the AI capex story and and uh, you know, is really a durable uh investment uh opportunity for uh, you know, us as as well as, you know, these, these companies, you know, trying to raise and make sure that the rails of the AI railroad are are built as quickly as possible.
03:01 Speaker B
What did you make, Tim? I’m just curious, you know, we talk about trade and tariffs a lot of course, as we should. So President Trump comes out today, uh throwing haymakers at Canada, clearly not happy, right? Making, making some, some threats there, saying, listen, new tariffs are on the way. What’s interesting, Tim, about that is caught people off guard. The market did react a bit initially, but then you end the day up all, all green here, right? I mean every popular average in the green. What does that tell us, Tim, as investors?
04:04 Speaker A
I, I think there’s some complacency. I mean, this, this V-shaped recovery has been so hated, right? Um, you know, positioning was offside by a lot of the hedge funds, you know, we’ve seen that adjust a little bit, but, you know, ultimately it’s been, you know, sort of this classic dual, you know, pain trade where we’ve had a short squeeze higher and then we’ve had the narrowing leadership more recently. Um, and ultimately, I, you know, I think, you know, retail certainly charging this uh, you know, rally quite a bit. Uh, but people are just, you know, fear missing out. And if we do get a pretty solid earning season here in Q2, maybe some of the tariff impact is not quite uh, you know, baked in the cake uh, just yet for, for some of these companies and and a relatively, uh, I’d say sanguin, you know, outlook for the back half of this year, uh markets continued, you know, could continue to grind higher from here. But, you know, I think the, the key point is why we’re back at all-time highs is that we haven’t had traded headlines. And so, uh if we start to see this, you know, as we get closer to, you know, July 9th, uh ultimately creep back into, you know, the, the um headlines quite a bit more, um I think the equity markets are vulnerable sort of priced for perfection and in a lot of ways and uh again, it’s just been, you know, somewhat fragile, you know, just given the narrowing breath that we’ve seen recently.
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