Birth rates: Most US women still want kids, but half aren’t sure they can

As U.S. birth rates continue to fall to historic lows, a new study reveals the complex and uncertain reality behind Americans’ family planning decisions—particularly among women who say they want children.

Roughly half of women who intend to have children are unsure whether they’ll ever follow through, and many say they won’t be especially upset if they don’t, according to new research published in the journal Genus.

“People’s feelings about having children are complicated, and we found there are a lot of nuances,” said Sarah Hayford, co-author of the study and professor of sociology at The Ohio State University.

“It suggests that there is no simple answer to the declining birth rate in the United States.”

Using nearly two decades of data from the National Survey of Family Growth, researchers analyzed responses from more than 41,000 women aged from15–44.

The study, led by Ohio State PhD student Luca Badolato, found that while 62 percent of women consistently said they intended to have children, up to 50 percent of those respondents were only “somewhat sure” or “not at all sure” they would actually do so.

That uncertainty may be shaping the nation’s fertility rate more than previously understood.

After peaking at 2.12 children per woman in 2007, the U.S. fertility rate has steadily declined, reaching 1.62 in 2023—well below the replacement level of 2.1.

Much of the public debate has focused on structural factors like childcare costs, work-life balance and economic insecurity.

But this new research suggests that internal factors—how strongly women feel about having children and how certain they are in that desire—are equally important.

Even among those who say they want children, the strength of that desire appears to be waning.

One-quarter of childless women who said they intended to become mothers also reported that they wouldn’t be bothered if they never had children. Young women felt this ambivalence strongly, and it has increased over time.

“They are open to different pathways and different kinds of lives,” said Hayford, who also directs Ohio State’s Institute for Population Research. “If they don’t become parents for whatever reason, it doesn’t seem that upsetting to many of them.”

Socioeconomic status also plays a role. Higher income and education levels slightly increased women’s certainty about having children.

Yet even among women with a bachelor’s degree, the share who were “very sure” about becoming parents declined significantly—from 65 percent in 2014 to 54 percent in 2018.

In a related study, Hayford and co-author Karen Benjamin Guzzo of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill examined whether broader societal issues—such as climate change, political instability, or economic inequality—were driving fertility decisions.

Using survey data from the American Trends Panel, which polled 3,696 people, the researchers found that personal dissatisfaction with one’s own life—not global or national concerns—was the key factor linked to whether someone expected to have children.

“It was a bit of a surprise to us, but it was only their personal situation that mattered to whether they expected to have children,” Hayford said.

The studies show a country that’s going through changes in population, feelings and culture.

While many Americans still say they want children, that desire is increasingly laced with doubt, flexibility and even indifference.

“On the one hand there is a lot of latent desire and intentions to have children,” Hayford said. “But people have a lot of uncertainty about whether they will meet those goals, and many don’t seem to worry that much if they do or don’t have children.”

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References

Badolato, L., Hayford, S. R., & Guzzo, K. B. (2025). Multiple dimensions of uncertainty in fertility goals: Recent trends and patterns in the United States. Genus, 81(1), 14. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-025-00251-6

Guzzo, K. B., & Hayford, S. R. (2025). Subjective Evaluations of Personal and Public Well-Being and Expected Future Childbearing. In The Retreat from Marriage and Parenthood: Examining the Causes and Consequences of Declining Rates. Emerald Publishing Limited.