How to Find Strong Finance Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises

Wall Street watches a company’s quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.

The earnings figure itself is key, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb even higher.

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information. With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure.

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let’s dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Ally Financial (ALLY) earns a Zacks Rank #3 right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.77 a share, just 30 days from its upcoming earnings release on July 16, 2025.

Ally Financial’s Earnings ESP sits at 1.55%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.77 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.76.

ALLY is part of a big group of Finance stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Virtu Financial (VIRT) as well.

Slated to report earnings on July 17, 2025, Virtu Financial holds a #1 (Strong Buy) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it’s Most Accurate Estimate is $1.24 a share 31 days from its next quarterly update.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Virtu Financial is $1.01, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of 22.37%.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, ALLY and VIRT could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they’re reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>

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