Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as uncertainty related to Trump’s trade policy also lifted inflation expectations, according to new data released Tuesday morning.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for April came in at a reading of 86, a significant drop from March’s revised 92.9 reading and short of the 88 reading expected by economists.
The “Present Situation Index,” which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell to 133.5 in April from 134.5 in March.
The “Expectations Index,” which tracks consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, also fell to 54.4 in April from 65.2 last month. This was the lowest level since October 2011. Historically, a reading below 80 in that category signals a recession in the coming year.
Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations reached 7% in April — the highest since November 2022, when the US was experiencing extremely high inflation.
Outside of inflation, a significant 32.1% of consumers now expect fewer job opportunities in the next six months, a level not seen since April 2009 during the height of the Great Recession.
At the same time, outlooks for future income have turned negative for the first time in five years, “suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations.”
Despite this growing unease about the future, consumers’ perceptions of current conditions remain relatively stable, which has helped prevent a steeper drop in the overall Confidence Index.
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