00:00 Speaker A
Trump’s pause on most reciprocal tariffs sending markets soaring. The S&P 500 seeing its best day since 2008. For more on the trading day takeaways, we have Yahoo Finance’s very own Josh Shafer. Josh.
00:13 Josh Shafer
All right, Josh. Let’s not downplay the drama here. This was one of the craziest days you’re probably ever going to see in the stock market quite frankly. When we take a look at some of these moves, you had the S&P 500 rise over 9 and a half percent in a single day.
00:26 Speaker A
You just said it. That is the largest rise we’ve seen since 2008. The Nasdaq composite closed up over 12%. Again, that was nearly a 2008 moniker. It actually ended up being its largest rise since 2022. Then you flip over to the Dow. Josh, the Dow gained almost 3,000 points today. I mean, the numbers are just staggering. Of course, the news was, Trump announced delaying a slew of tariffs for 90 days. That’s where you got this massive pop. Also added more duties to China. Market didn’t really seem to care about that even if you went to Chinese stocks, like an Alibaba. That stock was still up. Apple performed well as well. I want to just flip to some of those individual movers because look at the MAG 7 today. Nvidia was up almost 20%. Apple, as I just mentioned, up 15. Take a look at Tesla, up 23%. But Josh, let’s have a little bit of fun here and sort of realize what’s going on from a bigger picture, right? Let’s go to a 5-day on Tesla. That still doesn’t look great, right? So, we didn’t gain back all of those tariff losses today in some of these bigger names, which I think is important to point out. One more highlight for you, let’s take a look at Apple. We’re also going to slap a 5-day on Apple. Apple is still down 11%. You look at the year to date on it, stock’s off 20%. So, it’s not like we fixed all of our issues here in one day if you’ve been someone that’s holding Apple since the start of the year, right? We’re not back near record highs or really anything like that.
02:06 Josh Shafer
You know, and so now was this kind of like a one day pop or something more sustainable? We did talk to a smart strategist on the show today and I would say, you know, big picture, she said, listen, you got to let the dust settle after a day like today, but to the extent, she said that if we could get back to some cadence where we were less focused on tariffs and politics, and we will be more focused after this on maybe earnings and fundamentals. She sounded more obviously constructive.
02:42 Speaker A
Maybe, Josh, at least, at minimum, the S&P 500 chart will stop doing this every day. And maybe we’ll have a little bit of sustainability to start to understand what the fundamental story looks like right now, because I think that’s the looming question, right? You’ve had this tariff overhang. It’s still not gone. We’re talking about a 90-day delay. We don’t know what’s going to happen in 90 days and it’s really hurt consumer and business confidence. So, what does that mean moving forward? I don’t think the market has that answer right now and I think to your point, my second takeaway today, the big debate right now is, all right, do I buy the dip still or am I selling this rip in the S&P 500? I mean, the index is up 10%. It would not be shocking at some point in the next couple of days to see perhaps, maybe a big down day as well, right, as you’re starting to just see people, all right, I made some profits off a pretty good trade in one day.
03:49 Josh Shafer
And what about all those economists, Josh? You were fielding this all week who were sort of and very smart, uh sophisticated economists, who are all kind of, I mean, really this kind of chorus of raising the odds, raising the probabilities of a recession, of contraction. After a day like today, what do you think happens to the research? What happens to those odds?
04:25 Speaker A
Yeah. So, I think this really explained the chaos of the day. Goldman Sachs just before 1:00 comes out and says our baseline is now a recession. Now, within that there is a little subtext of unless the tariffs get rolled back. Well, 30 minutes later, the tariffs got rolled back. Now Goldman Sachs says, ah, maybe not a recession. But the probability is still 45% with their tracking. 45% is pretty high, Josh. And I want to highlight another economist and some data he’s been looking at. So Neil Dutta over at RenMac, he also called for a recession today. I was speaking with him yesterday about his general outlook. He’s sort of been making the point that the economy’s been slowing before we talk about tariffs, right? So look at a chart like this. This is the prime age employment. So this is workers age 25 to 54, key part of your workforce. Down half a percentage point over the last six months. If I zoomed out on this chart, which I don’t have in front of us right now, when the prime age employment drops about half a percentage point, that usually only happens in recessions. So you still have a labor market that is definitely slowing. We’re waiting for the impacts to come into that data and it’s overall been a lower higher or lower fire sort of mood, right? So still the question is how do corporates play out over the next couple of months and make management decisions. It’s not like we’re out of the woods in terms of that recession. So getting back to the equity market side of that. I’m not sure we’re really fully done sort of pricing in the impacts of what’s already happened and kind of the chaos of the last couple weeks.
06:13 Josh Shafer
Yeah, economist tough job in the best of circumstances.
06:16 Speaker A
It’s really hard right now.
06:18 Josh Shafer
Thanks.
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