The NCAA men’s college basketball coaches who blew their NIL budgets on COVID seniors and grad transfers might have some buyer’s remorse.
This year’s freshman class has taken a sledgehammer to the idea that you have to be old to win in the modern era.
It’s not just Cooper Flagg who has played beyond his years. This year’s NCAA tournament is littered with freshmen who have played starring roles for their teams, freshmen whose NBA Draft stock is based not just on potential but production.
Below is a ranking of the 10 best NBA prospects in this year’s NCAA tournament. Eagle-eyed readers will notice they all have one thing in common: Each one is a freshman.
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1. Cooper Flagg, Duke
Age: 18 | 6-foot-9, 205 pounds | Forward | Draft range: 1
No, Flagg’s sprained ankle doesn’t jeopardize his hopes of going No. 1 overall. He would be the top pick even if he doesn’t dribble a basketball again between now and draft night. Expectations were unfathomably high for Flagg entering the season, yet he is surpassing them. He has guided Duke to an ACC title and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. He leads the Blue Devils in every major statistical category. He is the favorite to win national player of the year even though he was 17 years old when the season began and he still should be a senior in high school. The draft lottery on May 12 is Capture the Flagg night. Whoever secures the No. 1 pick will be getting a franchise-altering talent.
2. VJ Edgecombe, Baylor
Age: 19 | 6-5, 185 pounds | Guard | Draft range: 3-5
The centerpiece of a decorated Baylor freshman class, Edgecombe started slowly but elevated his game in conference play. He has overcome streaky shotmaking to average 17.1 points per game since Jan. 7, showcasing an explosive first step, polished passing and a knack for finishing in the open floor. Throw in that he’s a ball-hawking defender with all sorts of quickness and athleticism, and Edgecombe is building a real case to go as high as No. 4 overall — or maybe even challenge Rutgers wing Ace Bailey to go even higher.
3. Kasparas Jakučionis, Illinois
Age: 18 | 6-6, 200 pounds | Guard | Draft range: 4-8
Elite European prospects like Jakucionis used to stay overseas until they were ready to enter the NBA Draft. Now college basketball is becoming more appealing with the availability of NIL money and the opportunity to develop while playing against 18- to 22-year-olds instead of grown men. Jakučionis made his debut for European powerhouse Barcelona at age 16 and played in the Euroleague at 17. That readied him to make an immediate impact at Illinois, where the big, versatile guard has averaged 15 points per game. He isn’t an explosive athlete, but he’s a maestro using ball screens and has shot it well on pull-ups or off the catch.
4. Kon Knueppel, Duke
Age: 19 | 6-7, 217 pounds | Wing | Draft range: 5-12
The full extent of Knueppel’s abilities were on display in the ACC quarterfinals after Flagg went down with his ankle sprain. Knueppel erupted for 22 second-half points, creating offense for himself off the dribble while also finding Khaman Maluach for a series of lob dunks. That display is evidence that Knueppel can be more than an elite catch-and-shoot specialist in the NBA. He can attack a closeout or an advantage situation. He’s a good decision maker with the ball in his hands. And while his quickness is a concern, he’s crafty and competitive enough to be a solid perimeter defender.
5. Derik Queen, Maryland
Age: 20 | 6-10, 246 pounds | Center | Draft range: 6-14
Maryland head coach Kevin Willard recently made a curious comment about Queen, telling CBSSports.com, “If he was European and white he’d be the first pick in the draft.” That doesn’t make much sense, but what’s telling is how eager Willard is to go to bat for his guy. Queen has been the catalyst for a Maryland team that finished tied for second in the Big Ten, averaging 15.7 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. There are questions about his defense at the next level due to his modest size and athleticism, but Queen is an immense offensive talent whose footwork, passing and soft touch have been terrific.
6. Liam McNeeley, UConn
Age: 19 | 6-7, 210 pounds | Forward | Draft range: 6-14
This is one of the safest picks an NBA team can make in the back half of the lottery. McNeeley is an elite perimeter shooter who will space the floor with his deep range, move the ball and rebound. That’s the role he filled for two years at Montverde Academy when he was teammates with fellow projected first-round picks Flagg, Derik Queen and Asa Newell. And that’s the role he has filled at times for UConn when Dan Hurley hasn’t needed him to come out of his comfort zone and create off the dribble more than McNeeley is realistically equipped for.
7. Khaman Maluach, Duke
Age: 18 | 7-foot-2, 250 pounds | Center | Draft range: 6-14
Maluach grew up in Uganda after his family fled war-ravaged South Sudan when he was a child. The closest basketball court was nearly an hour walk from Maluach’s home, so he didn’t pick up the sport until age 13 and was still learning how to play when he received an invitation to join the NBA Academy in Senegal a year later. Maluach has since learned to use his mobility and 7-foot-6 wingspan to his advantage. He’s still extremely raw as a low-post scorer, but he anchors an elite Duke defense while also gobbling up rebounds and showing some shooting and rim-running upside.
8. Tre Johnson, Texas
Age: 19 | 6-6, 190 pounds | Guard | Draft range: 5-14
Texas wouldn’t have even been on the NCAA tournament bubble were it not for Johnson’s ability to put the ball in the bucket. The SEC freshman of the year is a dynamic scorer who has taken advantage of the offensive freedom he is afforded, eclipsing the 20-point mark 14 times and piling up 30 or more on three occasions. The concern with Johnson is not just that he doesn’t do much else besides score. It’s also how he scores. Can he finish at the rim consistently? Can he get to the foul line? Or will he rely on mostly high-degree-of-difficulty pull-up jumpers? Those are real issues, even if nobody in college basketball can score more in bunches.
9. Jase Richardson, Michigan State
Age: 19 | 6-3, 185 pounds | Guard | Draft range: 8-16
For a four-star prospect ranked outside the top 30 by every major recruiting service, Richardson has exceeded all reasonable expectations. He has been perhaps Michigan State’s best player despite coming off the bench until early February. Since Tom Izzo fully unleashed Richardson, the son of former Michigan State star Jason Richardson has averaged nearly 19 points per game and displayed poise, feel and decision making beyond his years. That has helped him soar up draft boards, as has the impact he has made with his perimeter defense.
10. Egor Demin, BYU
Age: 19 | 6-9, 190 pounds | Guard | Draft range: 10-20
Early excitement about Demin sent the Russian skyrocketing up NBA Draft boards in November. Some mock drafts had him going top five after he flashed elite positional size, court vision and playmaking ability. The enthusiasm has since cooled as Demin has missed time due to a bone bruise and struggled with poor shotmaking and careless turnovers. The BYU freshman is shooting just 41% from the field and 27.8% from 3-point range. Still, there will be first-round interest in a 6-9 guard with Demin’s passion and vision. And he’ll go even earlier if one lottery team thinks his ability to create his own offense is better than his numbers this season suggest.
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