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Full Year Adjusted EBITDA: $5.656 billion, exceeding the top end of original guidance range.
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Nuclear Production Tax Credit Benefit: $545 million recognized in the fourth quarter.
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2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion.
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2025 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Before Growth Guidance: $3 billion to $3.6 billion.
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2024 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Before Growth: Approximately $2.888 billion.
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Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA Ratio: Below 3x at the end of 2024.
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Share Repurchases: Approximately 160 million shares repurchased since November 2021, reducing shares outstanding by about 30%.
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2025 and 2026 Shareholder Returns: At least $1.3 billion expected to be returned each year through dividends and share repurchases.
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2026 Adjusted EBITDA Midpoint Opportunity: Over $6 billion.
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2024 Energy Harbor Contribution: Exceeded $700 million expectation by approximately $200 million.
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2025 Solar and Energy Storage CapEx: Just over $700 million planned.
Release Date: February 27, 2025
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
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Vistra Corp (NYSE:VST) achieved a full-year adjusted EBITDA of $5.656 billion, exceeding the top end of their original guidance range.
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The company successfully closed a unique acquisition, adding three new nuclear sites and 1 million retail customers.
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Vistra Corp (NYSE:VST) completed a 20-year license renewal for the Comanche Peak nuclear power plant.
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The company secured two large power purchase agreements for its renewable pipeline.
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Vistra Corp (NYSE:VST) returned approximately $5.9 billion to investors through share repurchases and dividends since 2021.
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The Moss Landing site in California experienced a fire, impacting the 300-megawatt Phase 1 battery storage facility.
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There is uncertainty around the timing and treatment of insurance recoveries related to the Moss Landing incident.
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Regulatory and legislative uncertainties in PJM and ERCOT markets could impact future operations and growth.
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The company faces challenges in finalizing deals due to ongoing regulatory clarity issues, particularly concerning colocation projects.
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Vistra Corp (NYSE:VST) is cautious about signing long-term contracts due to discrepancies between forward power prices and expected load growth.
Q: What is the timeline for potential deals, and what are the main impediments? A: James Burke, President and CEO, explained that while discussions with major hyperscalers and data center developers are ongoing, the complexity of colocation deals, regulatory clarity, and risk-sharing terms are key factors. The timing of announcements depends on clarity from regulatory bodies like FERC and Texas legislation.
Q: Is Comanche Peak the primary focus for colocation deals? A: James Burke confirmed that Comanche Peak is currently considered the most attractive opportunity due to its land availability and potential for quick execution, although there is interest in both Texas and PJM markets.
Q: How does Vistra view the current forward power prices, and how does it impact long-term contracts? A: James Burke noted that while forward prices have increased, they do not fully reflect expected load growth. Vistra is cautious about signing long-term deals at current forward prices, especially for fixed-price contracts, as they believe the market does not yet account for the full extent of future demand.
Q: What is the interest level in gas plant colocation, and how does it fit into Vistra’s strategy? A: Stacey Dore, EVP of Public Affairs, stated that there is interest in existing gas sites, primarily from data center developers. These deals require regulatory approval and may involve adding backup generation to meet reliability needs. Vistra is progressing discussions on several sites and exploring new gas builds.
Q: What is the status of regulatory clarity needed for nuclear and gas deals? A: Stacey Dore explained that regulatory clarity is crucial for both nuclear and gas colocation deals. While Vistra is not waiting for full clarity to announce deals, ongoing legal proceedings affect commercial discussions, particularly around change of law provisions. Vistra continues to work on development and customer agreements.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
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