These 2 Finance Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can’t control the latter, but they can focus on a company’s earnings results every quarter.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information. With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure.

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let’s dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. HCI Group (HCI) earns a Zacks Rank #3 right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at -$1.55 a share, just 10 days from its upcoming earnings release on February 27, 2025.

HCI Group’s Earnings ESP sits at 43.64%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the -$1.55 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$2.75.

HCI is just one of a large group of Finance stocks with a positive ESP figure. First Bancorp (FBP) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

First Bancorp is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on April 22, 2025. FBP’s Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.44 a share 64 days from its next earnings release.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for First Bancorp is $0.44, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of 1.15%.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, HCI and FBP could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they’re reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>

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